News & Insights from the Boomer Project

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In fact, we have a whole new graphic treatment. Check out our Web site to see the entire package: www.boomerproject.com. 

Our tagline: The Nation's Authority on Today's Boomer Consumer.

Pretty assertive, but we back it up with our exclusive access to the monthly surveys of over 8,000 adults 18 years old and up, from BIGresearch's Consumer Intentions & Actions studies. With about half of the respondents falling into the Boomer cohort years, we are able to track, assess and analyze current Boomer Consumer behavior quicker, deeper and better than any other firm in America.

Each year we pour over data from over 100,000 completed surveys, and prepare insights for our clients. For this month's "Jumpin' Jack Flash" we'll share some of those fresh insights about the nation's retailers. 

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The Sky is Falling for Retailers

Chicken Little says it best. Retailers this holiday season will have to survive large chunks of falling sky.

Here's why.

Consumers, especially Boomer Moms, are cutting back, waaaaayyyy back, on spending money this holiday season. The instaneous frugality that began shortly after September 15th's announcement of the government bailout plan is now in full force. And that frugality spells trouble for retailers.

You see, BIG asks a question every month to monitor the shopping plans for consumers. The question,asked for about a dozen retail categories, is:

Simple question, asked month after month. BIG has gone back in time to track what people say they plan to spend with actual sales by category and/or retailer. They have learned that what the consumer tells us they are going to do is remarkably similar to what the consumer then goes and does. In other words, we should take the consumer at their word when it comes to spending plans.

Now, here's what the October data portends: falling sky.

We looked at Walmart shoppers, that is anyone who says Walmart is their first choice to shop for any of 20 different categories (only need to list Walmart once to qualify as a "Walmart shopper"). These consumers, more than half of the October respondent pool, then told us their spending plans for the next 90 days. Across 12 key categories -- women's clothes, toys, electronics, DVDs, etc. -- the percent of all Walmart shoppers who plan to spend "less" jumped from 30% in 2007 to 49% in 2008 -- 1.6 times higher year over year.

The Boomer Moms who said they plan to spend "less" increased to 56% and Younger Moms reached 46%.

Study the chart yourself (click to enlarge):

The reason this spells "falling sky" for retailers is this: Last Christmas wasn't very robust for retailers. This year, half of the shoppers of the largest, lowest-priced retailer on the planet are planning to spend "less." That, friends, is more than dark clouds. That's full-fledged "duck and cover" bad.

Knowing this, what will Walmart do? Well, so far, we haven't seen them respond to the economic downturn in their marketing as crisply and smartly as has their rival, Target, and their TV spots about the "Brand New Day" we're all experiencing.

But maybe Walmart's marketing doesn't need to come around. After all, their sales were up 10% in October versus a year ago. It's Target that is in free fall.

Still, we're going to stick with our forecast and channel Chicken Little. That is, until consumers themselves tell us the sky isn't falling.

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Remember, another way to stay on top of all the important news and our commentary on understanding Boomers is to subscribe to our blog, Boomer Consumer :: The Blog. Just click the link and you'll see a place to type in your email address on the right side of the page. You'll get an email on those days we post something new.

Subscribers to the RSS Feed on the blog will tell you we've expanded the number of postings from several a month to several a week. That's because James A. Bacon has joined us as Senior Vice President, Publisher.

Jim has a long and storied carrier as a journalist and publisher, most recently serving as publisher of Virginia Business magazine.

In his two months with the Boomer Project, Jim has posted about 25 new items to the blog. He's covered the election, Boomer social media web sites, Guitar Hero III, vacations, retirement in Nicaragua and other relevant topics.

See what you're missing by subscribing to the blog today.

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Follow-up

Last month, we reported on the Focalyst Forum. We wrote that the event under-delivered against our expectations and wondered what our readers who experienced the event had to say.

All who responded agreed with our assessment and joined in our call for conferences and events filled with marketers sharing their successes and failures targeting Boomers. Case histories will play better than pundits telling us what to do. We want to hear what marketers are doing and what works and what doesn't.

Maybe next year.